It's time for everyone to re-read Player Piano by Kurt Vonnegut.

Aside from that, I think it's very important to alter the importance of "jobs" in this world and in our lives. Just look around here. There is talent and art flowing like a river through this place and none of that talent is valued in the same way a "job" is valued. It's true that jobs give meaning and purpose to people and there is value in that, but jobs are not the be all and end all in life. If automation opens a world for us to each explore one's creative abilities or to do absolutely nothing at all (if that's what you get off on) then so be it. Like anything else, we just need balance.

 

Just think how thrilled I was when I saw this!

10 years ago 3 and 4 axis CNC routers weren't all that common in small and med size shops, and 5's even less so.
Couldn't afford….couldn't justify…..what can it do that we can't…blah blah.
Now, they're everywhere.

Today, the woodworking industry dictates that if you want to progress…you MUST conform, or you'll be left behind in a huge way.
I can't say I like it….but I have to embrace it(ain't that effed up?) I've got a shop full of guys that have bills to pay.

Hopefully…in my industry anyway, It'll work out the same way as it did in the past/present. I've never had to lay anyone off BECAUSE of the CNC work we do….it just allowed us to take on a lot more work.
Granted….one drawback is the fact I've had to hire a lot less as well.

It's the future, like it or not.

 

In the woodworking industry, robots and CNC machines don't replace skilled workers. There's a serious shortage of skilled woodworkers.
If you have skills and experience, you can find a job at 10 different shops in my area.

That robot cutting the stair stringer was cool. In the comments, someone mentioned that it was a $20,000 machine. That's far more than $20K. Probably much more than $200K.
But the stairway is probably around $20,000.

 

In the woodworking industry, robots and CNC machines don t replace skilled workers.
- Ger21

In the custom stair industry, that's just simply not true. Particularly with custom straight stairs. MANY skills have been shifted away from the guys on the floor, to the point where probably 75% of the straight stairs we build, are built by employee's that I would call 'unskilled' in wood working. I can pay them half the wage, and they can assemble 2 to 3 times faster.
Most of the previous skills that these guys had to know in the past haven't necessarily just disappeared, but been shifted to skilled draftsmen, programmers and operators who can perform these same tasks in a fraction of the amount of time it used to take by hand with far greater accuracy, and in most cases, fit and finish as well.
Today, I can produce the same $10,000 dollar straight hardwood staircase, better quality, in half the amount of time, all hands included, without what I would call a 'skilled stair builder' ever laying a hand on it.

Curved staircases haven't been effected to nearly the same degree, but that's changing all the time.
The video you watched of the robot cutting out the curved stringer…..It's been sped up, but more than likely took no more than 15-20 minutes max(and that's a stretch). What it executed in 20 minutes would take a skilled stair builder 3-4 hours at best.
I definitely still need highly skilled builders on the shop floor, and on site. Just not as many as I would have in the past.
I stay fairly close with a couple (one in particular) large(70+ on the floor), high end cabinet shops that do both residential and commercial work. Much of the high end(high skilled)detailed architectural millwork, corbel's column's etc. is done with a 5 axis cnc now.

 

It is rather simple. If the task can be done through automation it will be done so once it is cheaper to produce the product than using skilled or non skilled labor. So many in today's society are grasping to time period of manufacturing that has and will continue to diminish.

 

I don't want to be a Luddite but this is true and we should figure out a way to slow this process and at some point halt it because it does not seem sustainable. It's not just the loss of jobs but the fact that we live in a disposable society and we are accelerating on that path from durable goods to single use and chuck it.

 

Automation has the potential to replace ALL jobs over the next few decades. Some estimates have computers thinking as well as humans in less than 15 years. This snowball started rolling down the hill decades ago, but it is really picking up speed now. Ultimately no one's job is safe. It's only a question of time.

How does an economy work when human labor has no value?

This is not like previous technological revolutions. In the past, automation, or more generally increases in production efficiency, freed people to do more complex tasks. This is probably the biggest part of mankind's continued improvement in quality of life. But, once machines can do everything we can do, there is no next level.

There's no stopping this. Businesses will continue to improve efficiency via automation because this lowers their production costs. While business can see that this reduces their customer base, there's no direct connection to a specific business.

Perhaps it will require laws that require businesses to spend X% of revenues on human labor. In the end, I don't think it will be up to us. Eventually the computer (yes one large, distributed computer) will control us. It will be up to this computer what happens. However, I suspect it will be benevolent, and probably will let us think we are still in control.

 

cking up
Eventually the computer (yes one large, distributed computer) will control us. It will be up to this computer what happens. However, I suspect it will be benevolent, and probably will let us think we are still in control.

- clin

I was under the impression this had already happened?

 

I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords.

I don t want to be a Luddite but this is true and we should figure out a way to slow this process and at some point halt it because it does not seem sustainable. It s not just the loss of jobs but the fact that we live in a disposable society and we are accelerating on that path from durable goods to single use and chuck it.

- OSB

What about a world where EVERYTHING is performed by a computer/robot. What would people do? Permanent vacation? That can't be all bad.

 

That kinda sounds like the movie WALL-E

 

Build you a house?
http://www.blueprint-robotics.com/video/

How about a timber framed house?

Need a brick layer?

Make no mistake, it's here, it's now.
You can stand in the corner with your arms crossed in disgust and a fowl look on your face if you choose….the tech world doesn't care.

 

everyone looked to the day they could relax and enjoy life
first it was going to be 35 hour work weeks
then more credit to buy better
now we got automation to ease the workload
and many don't have work
or can't keep up with the joneses anymore
not even the joneses

things will proceed along this way

then they will have robots to take over football and basketball
some will object
but many will be ok with it
as many spectacular plays will be exciting

until they come up with a robot

that drinks their beer for them

 

I don't think we have to fear of not being able to work. Individuals just will have to redefine what they considered "skilled" labor. If a job entails essentially being an able body yes you should be concerned. Unfortunately a segment of the population falls into this category. Based on the assemblies I attended at the high school, with my oldest, and the career days they presented they are pushing a vast majority of kids into these "skilled" areas….future government dependent masses or those that will struggle to get ahead not understanding why they don't make more for stamping widgets and why they would be replaced by a machine.

 

We'll have to leave the U.S. in search of opportunity! How ironic is that?!

 

Permanent vacation, I doubt it.

I predict sky high unemployment, major class separation and collapsing social services.

This ain't Star Trek.

 

Has an estimate ever been done on how many humans would be needed to fabricate and maintain the robots?

 

We ll have to leave the U.S. in search of opportunity! How ironic is that?!

- SuperCubber

Naaah, you just need to leave South Carolina. People in red states just don't realize how much of a role their state leadership has in making their states economic hell-scapes. Take Mississippi for example. The MS state government knows that if they can keep their population poor, under-educated and angry, then they'll counterintuitively vote for the same leadership that keeps them poor, under-educated and angry, every single time.

 

Take a step back, and tell me which society has it better:

Society A, or Society B that is the same in all ways as Society A but has some machines to help it do more work.

Society B has it better. It is wealthier and can do more with less effort. I consider this a plain fact.

Now, with change of any sort there are often difficulties. The transition from A to B leads to some workers being displaced (which sucks, for sure). But those workers ought to be able to find other ways to add value.

If Society B contiues to advance technologically and gets to a point where it can't find something productive for its people to do, it would speak to the wealth of Society B.

Obviously, the big issue Society B will have to grapple with is how to distribute that wealth, which is an exercise in balancing the power of the owners of the capital stock and government against their fear of an uprising.

 

everyone looked to the day they could relax and enjoy life
first it was going to be 35 hour work weeks
then more credit to buy better
now we got automation to ease the workload
and many don t have work
or can t keep up with the joneses anymore
not even the joneses

things will proceed along this way

then they will have robots to take over football and basketball
some will object
but many will be ok with it
as many spectacular plays will be exciting

until they come up with a robot

that drinks their beer for them

- patron

8^D Better give that beer drinking robot a good liver, or it'll be in the repair shop instead of working!

When I worked as an engineer, I loved CNC machined parts. It saved most of the key entry work to import my design to the machine, thus reducing labor and mistakes. I would have a first article made of plastic in the 3D printer, first, as well. Making some of the tools I designed by manual machining methods would have been extremely cost prohibitive.

Agreed, automation is taking jobs. I contend that most of them are rote tasks better suited to a machine that doesn't vary its operational condition (much) from one article to the next. I've even seen where the grapes are being picked by mechanical harvesters. This one has a driver, but work is being done on an automated picker with machine vision capability.

 

I have a CNC in my shop now. It enables me to now do things that otherwise would have been too labor intensive to do and actually make a profit. It also enables me to safely do things that would otherwise have been done by hand with a certain amount of risk. Im struggling to understand the "lost skill" argument. I still have to know how to do things just like I did when I was doing everything by hand. The difference is I'm using a different set of tools and processes to get there. It seems insane to me for someone actually suggest Id be better off going back to a router table, worrying about cutting my fingers instead of having a machine do it for me. My accuracy is higher, as is my quality and repeatability.

 

Has an estimate ever been done on how many humans would be needed to fabricate and maintain the robots?

- Gerald Thompson

Yes, and the estimate is zero. The machines will make and repair the machines. The machines will eventually be as smart as us, likely within a few decades. Once that happens, the machines will very quickly become, much, much smarter than us.

I have a CNC in my shop now. It enables me to now do things that otherwise would have been too labor intensive to do and actually make a profit. It also enables me to safely do things that would otherwise have been done by hand with a certain amount of risk. Im struggling to understand the "lost skill" argument. I still have to know how to do things just like I did when I was doing everything by hand. The difference is I m using a different set of tools and processes to get there. It seems insane to me for someone actually suggest Id be better off going back to a router table, worrying about cutting my fingers instead of having a machine do it for me. My accuracy is higher, as is my quality and repeatability.

- Logboy

As you just said, it is too labor intensive. What is happening is you are now producing more with less labor. It works better for you, because it's your business. But when you can produce more with less work, it means someone else won't be paid to do it. Works great for you, but not for the guy who loses his job.

This is the issue. Business has their foot on the gas, embracing technology to reduce labor costs. The problem is we're heading right off a cliff. I'm not saying this is business's fault, it's the way it has always been. Up to now it's been a great thing, since it freed up labor to do something else. The problem is, there is no longer something else.

 

Naaah, you just need to leave South Carolina. People in red states just don t realize how much of a role their state leadership has in making their states economic hell-scapes. Take Mississippi for example. The MS state government knows that if they can keep their population poor, under-educated and angry, then they ll counterintuitively vote for the same leadership that keeps them poor, under-educated and angry, every single time.

- UncannyValleyWoods

Well said.

Elon Musk has some interesting things to say about society post automation.

 

The Paranoids are after you

 

https://singularityhub.com/2017/02/10/how-robots-helped-create-100000-jobs-at-amazon/

Look this over.

 

Naaah, you just need to leave South Carolina. People in red states just don t realize how much of a role their state leadership has in making their states economic hell-scapes. Take Mississippi for example. The MS state government knows that if they can keep their population poor, under-educated and angry, then they ll counterintuitively vote for the same leadership that keeps them poor, under-educated and angry, every single time.

- UncannyValleyWoods

You got it backwards - that would be blue states. Actually it's "the establishment" politicians, blue and red. Having been in manufacturing for over 30 years, working in global companies, I've had a front row seat. While automation has reduced labor, by a 4 or 5 to 1 margin jobs are lost to low cost labor countries. Put another way, of the 100% jobs lost over the last 30 years, automation caused 20-25%, Asia and Mexico the rest.