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Forum topic by nickbatz posted 10-01-2021 10:57 PM 1584 views 0 times favorited 93 replies Add to Favorites Watch
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nickbatz

870 posts in 1365 days


10-01-2021 10:57 PM

Topic tags/keywords: walnut

I just bought some 4/4 walnut today from the lumberyard.

It’s gone up a good 30% over a year ago. Same with the 4’x8’ sheets of cardboard I use to make cartons.

While the inflation across the whole economy is probably temporary due to covid, my guess is that lumber isn’t going back down.

I’m still in shock…


93 replies so far

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ibewjon

2680 posts in 4078 days


#1 posted 10-01-2021 11:30 PM

Hardwood lumber has been fairly stable price wise for years. Sooner or later, it had to go up.

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Francisco Luna

1052 posts in 4678 days


#2 posted 10-02-2021 01:07 AM

94 views to this question, only one Line long comment. I guess all people know what really is going on, but nobody wants to talk about it. All this BS of masks and “mandates” is sending America through the drain hole.

-- "Menos es mas" Ludwing Mies Van Der Rohe

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Aj2

4135 posts in 3083 days


#3 posted 10-02-2021 01:32 AM

Oh I think it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. That’s what happens when the lunatics are loose and running the insane asylum.
Most Americans don’t even notice what happening and think it’s going to get better because trumps not able to tweet.
Good Luck everyone

-- Aj

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Kelly

3873 posts in 4229 days


#4 posted 10-02-2021 01:51 AM

It’s not going to get better, in my opinion, anymore than I’m going to be making the equivalent of my 1974 purchase of a two story house, with a drive in basement, with a view of the King Dome and Needle for 21k.

Damage is damage. The more money these scum and idiots print, the more existing nickles loose their value. It’s said great grandpa’s envelope with a thousand dollars in it for you is, now, worth less than one hundred bucks.

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JAAune

2056 posts in 3601 days


#5 posted 10-02-2021 02:22 AM

Inflation is through the roof but I don’t believe Covid was the actual cause. I’m of the opinion that the financial problems behind the meltdown of 2008 were never fixed and increasing debt, trade deficits and loose monetary policy are biting back. The fun will last until other countries stop accepting US bonds and giving us the goods we need to fuel the trade deficit. Covid just provides a convenient excuse to establish economic controls, pour money into the system and prop it up for awhile longer.

I subscribe to one simple economic policy. In order to eat pie, someone must bake a pie. Clever methods of slicing up the pie into smaller pieces won’t feed more people.

In 10 year of running the business, I’ve never raised prices on my customers until this year. Now I’m raising prices on most clients almost every new order they place. We operate on a lean, continuous improvement model and that used to be enough to cover higher expenses each year. Not anymore.

Plywood and hardwood costs are close to double what they were last year. I’ve converted most billing forms to separate labor and materials and the clients pay actual material costs. So far everyone agrees to the increases because they’re either going to pay me higher prices, pay someone else even more or not get any product at all.

-- See my work at http://altaredesign.com

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SMP

4961 posts in 1190 days


#6 posted 10-02-2021 02:25 AM



94 views to this question, only one Line long comment. I guess all people know what really is going on, but nobody wants to talk about it. All this BS of masks and “mandates” is sending America through the drain hole.

- Francisco Luna-Posada

What question? You seem to be projecting your beliefs into something that is isn’t there lol.

OP, when I was a kid, I would ride my bike to Thriftys and get an ice cream cone. 5 cents a cone. guess i should have stocked up back then. But tbh, walnut has gone up much more than other woods like maple and oak due to china buying more walnut.

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nickbatz

870 posts in 1365 days


#7 posted 10-02-2021 02:31 AM

The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.

It’s depressing as hell to see how people just know so many things – loudly – that happen to be totally incorrect.

We’re in the middle of a raging pandemic that has killed millions of people and is killing a couple of thousand Americans every day. That has affected the supply chain.

And masks?! They save lives, for heaven’s sake! Not wearing masks is prolonging this! Stop listening to propaganda spewed by people who tell you what you want to hear so that you’ll vote for them – that this isn’t really happening, so mask mandates are just being put in place by people who want to hassle you for no good reason. Sorry, it is happening.

Kelly, your economic story is that this is because there’s too much money in circulation. That could be plausible during normal times, but right now it’s the wrong diagnosis. If that were the case, the inflation would be across the board. But it’s scattered – not everything is higher. Again, this is a temporary supply issue.

What you’re right about is that inflation is hard to put back in the bottle, because prices are set in advance. But it’s not because of fools printing too much money. Just like medicine, the right economic policy responses change with the condition.

“Printing money” (mainly in the form of very low interest rates) during the Great Recession didn’t case inflation, for instance. Why?

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JAAune

2056 posts in 3601 days


#8 posted 10-02-2021 02:33 AM



But tbh, walnut has gone up much more than other woods like maple and oak due to china buying more walnut.
- SMP

It may vary by state but in the Chicago area, hard maple is the biggest mover and the latest batch of 500bf priced at $5.49/bf. Last year it averaged around $2.75/bf. Cherry has also moved past $4/bf (up from around $3.25/bf).

Supplier told me poplar is the other species jumping in price and last month it was around $3/bf which would have been an 80 cent rise.

-- See my work at http://altaredesign.com

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nickbatz

870 posts in 1365 days


#9 posted 10-02-2021 02:42 AM


94 views to this question, only one Line long comment. I guess all people know what really is going on, but nobody wants to talk about it. All this BS of masks and “mandates” is sending America through the drain hole.

- Francisco Luna-Posada

What question? You seem to be projecting your beliefs into something that is isn’t there lol.

OP, when I was a kid, I would ride my bike to Thriftys and get an ice cream cone. 5 cents a cone. guess i should have stocked up back then. But tbh, walnut has gone up much more than other woods like maple and oak due to china buying more walnut.

- SMP

That’s interesting.

And it checks out with what the woman at the lumberyard said – that the price of other woods goes down if you buy 50BF, but not walnut.

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nickbatz

870 posts in 1365 days


#10 posted 10-02-2021 02:45 AM


But tbh, walnut has gone up much more than other woods like maple and oak due to china buying more walnut.
- SMP

It may vary by state but in the Chicago area, hard maple is the biggest mover and the latest batch of 500bf priced at $5.49/bf. Last year it averaged around $2.75/bf. Cherry has also moved past $4/bf (up from around $3.25/bf).

Supplier told me poplar is the other species jumping in price and last month it was around $3/bf which would have been an 80 cent rise.

- JAAune

Hm. So maybe it does vary by state.

There’s also the “because they can” factor, of course. Right now there’s a lot of building in CA, so maybe the demand for lumber is higher.

I have no idea. Interesting question, though.

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pottz

21313 posts in 2269 days


#11 posted 10-02-2021 03:02 AM

wake up man where you been,it’s reality.i sell construction hardware,and nails and other building materials.weve been hit with increases of over 50% in the last several months.lumber is a commodity product it rises and falls,it’s dropped a lot for framing lumber lately but may go up again.this is reality,blame it on what you want.your response seems very naieve !

-- working with my hands is a joy,it gives me a sense of fulfillment,somthing so many seek and so few find.-SAM MALOOF.

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Aj2

4135 posts in 3083 days


#12 posted 10-02-2021 03:15 AM



The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.

It s depressing as hell to see how people just know so many things – loudly – that happen to be totally incorrect.

We re in the middle of a raging pandemic that has killed millions of people and is killing a couple of thousand Americans every day. That has affected the supply chain.

And masks?! They save lives, for heaven s sake! Not wearing masks is prolonging this! Stop listening to propaganda spewed by people who tell you what you want to hear so that you ll vote for them – that this isn t really happening, so mask mandates are just being put in place by people who want to hassle you for no good reason. Sorry, it is happening.

Kelly, your economic story is that this is because there s too much money in circulation. That could be plausible during normal times, but right now it s the wrong diagnosis. If that were the case, the inflation would be across the board. But it s scattered – not everything is higher. Again, this is a temporary supply issue.

What you re right about is that inflation is hard to put back in the bottle, because prices are set in advance. But it s not because of fools printing too much money. Just like medicine, the right economic policy responses change with the condition.

“Printing money” (mainly in the form of very low interest rates) during the Great Recession didn t case inflation, for instance. Why?

- nickbatz

Nick you sound just like the morning news. :)

-- Aj

View 1thumb's profile

1thumb

510 posts in 3441 days


#13 posted 10-02-2021 03:25 AM

And masks?! They save lives, for heaven s sake! Not wearing masks is prolonging this! Stop listening to propaganda spewed by people who tell you what you want to hear so that you ll vote for them

Kelly, your economic story is that this is because there s too much money in circulation. That could be plausible during normal times, but right now it s the wrong diagnosis. If that were the case, the inflation would be across the board. But it s scattered – not everything is higher. Again, this is a temporary supply issue.

“Printing money” (mainly in the form of very low interest rates) during the Great Recession didn t case inflation, for instance. Why?

- nickbatz

mask saves lives? you sure that’s not propaganda spewed by people who tell you what you want to hear so that you ll vote for them? I’m not a ‘right wing woodworker’

Fiat currency didn’t exist in the 1930’s. Couldn’t print. See Nixon, Bretton Woods II and what followed

Maybe not everything is higher, but
- oil up 55%,
- natural gas up 122%,
- food up 33%,
- shipping costs up 225% in ‘21;
- past 6-months US CPI up 7.6% (annualized),
- core CPI up 6.8%,
- wages 4.9%
- cotton 28% (9 yr high)
- bacon 28% (40 year high)
-

-- “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”

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bruc101

1541 posts in 4827 days


#14 posted 10-02-2021 04:15 AM

My wife is a recently retired surgeon. She told us last flu season, flue cases were down over 50% because people were wearing mask. I have not and still have no problem wearing a mask, and I do when I get out of my truck at any store. I usually end up wearing one just about everyday in my shop, so no big deal, and I didn’t get my normal case of the flue last winter. Everyone in my family and all of our employees are also fully vaccinated.

As far as lumber prices. I bought 12 boards of premium white pine shelving boards at HD last week for a lot less than what I normally get no# 2 from our lumber vendor now.

-- Bruce Free Plans & Calculators https://traditionalwoodworking.org

View Kelly's profile

Kelly

3873 posts in 4229 days


#15 posted 10-02-2021 04:36 AM

It is indisputable the current damage to our economy is complements of decisions by government agents at all levels.

It is disputable peoples choices regarding masks, six foot distancing, for profit drugs that do not do what they were said to do and so on are responsible for our current problems.

As I indicated, I’ve been around a while and have seen the inflation game first hand, over many decades. Never once did everything go up all at once.

As to our promissory notes (Federal Reserve Notes) we call dollars, they are tied to something, or they aren’t.

If tied to something, that something could be gold, petrol, or other thing the availability which is a finite resource or availability, even as bit coin is.

If not tied to something tangible, its arbitrarily agreed to value could even be tied to secret backroom deals by public agents, promising to compromise the assets of the American people

History is replete with examples of fools and the corrupt in government diluting dollars to the point money became worthless. A couple of those examples are fresh. Some involve private entities and some are public.

Inflation has many sources:

- One is, dilution of the dollar by printing more money is just one. Increasing taxes, however called, is another

- No business can survive without passing on the costs of the business, whether the cost is licenses, taxes, permits, materials, labor or what have you. If those things go up, the increased cost has to be passed on. If not sooner, later.

- Some inflation is nothing more than people taking advantage of a situation. Selling used items for more than they would have sold for a given time before, for example (which makes since if you have to replace product for future sales).

- . . . .

It is known certain governments took advantage of their ability to manipulate the value of their dollar to allow them to, essentially, pay back less than they originally owed. This was talked of by people far more learned that most or all of us here.

We could go on and on, but, in the end, not everything we are seeing can be blamed on covid.

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