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Financial advisor claims "big lumber squeeze is over".

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Forum topic by OldBull posted 05-15-2021 09:08 PM 1291 views 0 times favorited 27 replies Add to Favorites Watch
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OldBull

415 posts in 414 days


05-15-2021 09:08 PM

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-lumber-trader-stinson-dean-164741704.html

.
.
. ”” There’s another dynamic. It’s his sense, just from talking to other traders, that the big box retailers (Home Depot, Loews, etc.) have plenty of inventory now and he expects them to reduce buying in the future, freeing up more wood for the commercial market, which should ease the strain further.

Separately to all this, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro points out that lumber production continues to rise, so the supply side is kicking into gear as well, another factor that should ease the strain. ””


27 replies so far

View HowardAppel's profile

HowardAppel

88 posts in 4153 days


#1 posted 05-15-2021 09:34 PM

He is probably correct. More people going back to work, less home improvement, people going back to work at the sawmills, etc., more product.

View 1thumb's profile

1thumb

442 posts in 3275 days


#2 posted 05-15-2021 10:24 PM



More people going back to work

- HowardAppel


IDK. 8-10m less workers now then before pandemic. Big brain financial gurus predicted 1m+ jobs created for last month and only 250k reported. 330k in hospitality and leisure, losses elsewhere. Interesting times ahead

-- I actually have two thumbs

View Kudzupatch's profile

Kudzupatch

214 posts in 2327 days


#3 posted 05-15-2021 11:47 PM

A the states stop paying people extra unemployment they will start to find jobs. I know people that have said, why should I get a job when I can draw all this unemployment? I can make as much and no expense of driving to work.

-- Jeff Horton * Kudzu Craft skin boats* www.kudzucraft.com

View bigJohninvegas's profile

bigJohninvegas

1043 posts in 2581 days


#4 posted 05-16-2021 12:22 AM



A the states stop paying people extra unemployment they will start to find jobs. I know people that have said, why should I get a job when I can draw all this unemployment? I can make as much and no expense of driving to work.

- Kudzupatch

My wife and I have both not missed a day due to Covid. Construction and grocery industry.
Both of our industries are have this issue. No one applying for work.
For me we hear, I want a 40 hour guarantee to come back to work. I get more that that most weeks, but not guaranteed. And they claim just what is stated above. (why should I get a job when I can draw all this unemployment?)

Now with great effort, we have about filled all the seats where I work. Mostly rookies that must be trained in all, while veteran work force sits on unemployment. And with extra unemployment in my state is about to come to an end. Plenty who should have come back to work are going to be crying soon.
Personally I am welcoming the fresh blood into my industry. The lazy ones can take the leftovers.
The good jobs will be filled up.

-- John

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1thumb

442 posts in 3275 days


#5 posted 05-16-2021 12:51 AM


The lazy ones can take the leftovers.
The good jobs will be filled up.

- bigJohninvegas

If you’re a skilled industry veteran and the job offered is you can’t get 40 hrs guaranteed and you can make same or more on unemployment, that’s not a good job you’re missing out on

-- I actually have two thumbs

View woodbutcherbynight's profile

woodbutcherbynight

9589 posts in 3528 days


#6 posted 05-16-2021 01:02 AM

My industry (automotive repair) we have been suffering for years for quality help. Our shop has 3 guys. I am youngest at 51, oldest at 65. NOBODY has applied in years. Currently we have a friend of the bosses family that is an apprentice. He likes the work but will he make it a career? Owner is committed to another 9 years staying open. Puts me close enough that I can take part time job at 60 and worm my way into retirement as bills will be paid off in 5 yrs. Other chain stores are reporting that they can’t get anyone to apply even with a bonus, plus being paid to come to interview.

On the flip side I have yet to hear an offer from the chains that was reasonable. Might be why I refuse to leave where I am at.

-- Live to tell the stories, they sound better that way.

View Knockonit's profile

Knockonit

853 posts in 1321 days


#7 posted 05-16-2021 01:17 AM

lol, its on the internet and yahoo to boot, so we know its real and truthful, just saying, long way from it.

-- Living the dream

View CWWoodworking's profile (online now)

CWWoodworking

1886 posts in 1298 days


#8 posted 05-16-2021 03:06 AM

My states(Indiana)unemployment is basically back to normal. 3-4%.

You do have to realize that at least 2% don’t want to work. Just the way it is.

The real problem with local manufacturing is materials and back log orders. Most furniture manufacturers are at a 6 month lead time.

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1thumb

442 posts in 3275 days


#9 posted 05-16-2021 03:46 AM


My states(Indiana)unemployment is basically back to normal. 3-4%.

You do have to realize that at least 2% don’t want to work. Just the way it is.

The real problem with local manufacturing is materials and back log orders. Most furniture manufacturers are at a 6 month lead time.

- CWWoodworking


But on the other hand, Indiana has 60k less workers now than at pre-pandemic 2020. And on the other hand, approx the same number of employed as four years ago. Economic data has many hands.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST180000000000003

-- I actually have two thumbs

View Woodmaster1's profile

Woodmaster1

1755 posts in 3706 days


#10 posted 05-16-2021 08:58 AM

Employers need to step up and treat workers better and pay a living wage. The reason fast food and other service industries can’t find workers is the low wages, less than 40 hours, lack of benefits and the way they are treated. The recent climate those workers in the service industry have found better jobs and a living wage. I don’t buy the narrative several people are not working because of unemployment benefits, lack of health insurance alone would be a reason to go back to work. Of my six kids all are working only one has a job that has no benefits and he works two jobs and can’t get enough hours at either one to qualify for benefits. He can’t work in manufacturing because disabilities that prevent him from working at that type of job. He lost one job last year and was denied unemployment. That’s when he started working three different jobs in the to make ends meet. I live in Indiana and there are several jobs available but because of working conditions no matter what the pay they are always looking for people. Not everyone is built to sling and grind castings 8 hours a day.

View RClark's profile

RClark

139 posts in 3304 days


#11 posted 05-16-2021 10:03 AM

I wonder when the “future” is in which we will see lumber prices fall.

At the start of the pandemic, I could get a framing 2X4 for $2.50 on sale. Last week, the price was about $9/stick. Yesterday, that same 2X4 was $10.69.

I need a couple sheets of 5/8” marine ply to do some work on my boat. They’re $95/sheet. That’s a multiplier of 3 compared to pre-pandemic pricing. The boat work will wait.

-- Ray

View CWWoodworking's profile (online now)

CWWoodworking

1886 posts in 1298 days


#12 posted 05-16-2021 10:32 AM


My states(Indiana)unemployment is basically back to normal. 3-4%.

You do have to realize that at least 2% don’t want to work. Just the way it is.

The real problem with local manufacturing is materials and back log orders. Most furniture manufacturers are at a 6 month lead time.

- CWWoodworking

But on the other hand, Indiana has 60k less workers now than at pre-pandemic 2020. And on the other hand, approx the same number of employed as four years ago. Economic data has many hands.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST180000000000003

- 1thumb

This doesn’t surprise me. We are not a destination state and have no tech.

We are farming and manufacturing. As small farms get swallowed and manufacturing jobs decline, so does jobs.

I don’t know about northern part of state, but unemployment in southern Indiana is 0%. If you don’t have a job, you basically don’t want to work.

One of the manufacturers in my home town has had a “now hiring” sign up for a decade.

View OldBull's profile

OldBull

415 posts in 414 days


#13 posted 05-16-2021 12:18 PM

Lots of greed in pricing in the U.S. I think covid had a lot of industries smiling behind closed doors.

View DevinT's profile

DevinT

1168 posts in 85 days


#14 posted 05-16-2021 12:43 PM

I love how people blame folks on unemployment as the reason for lack of applicants and employment being lower than pre-pandemic.

As-if nobody died from COVID.
Rather, as-if hundreds of thousands of people did not die in the past year.

Population literally decreased country-wide. I wonder what the actual numbers are.

Also, it may be that a “living wage” is not the same as a “working wage” in the case of unemployment paying enough to live on versus an employer paying less which is doubly bad because (as mentioned above) you have to do more with that smaller amount by commuting to your place of employment.

I think a lot of companies are trying to lure the reduced workforce with peanuts and people have had a taste of peanut butter and don’t want to go back to shelling peanuts.

Reduced workforce and failed ability to provide for increases in cost of living are likely driving factors in the slow return to pre-pandemic work levels.

-- Devin, SF, CA

View Knockonit's profile

Knockonit

853 posts in 1321 days


#15 posted 05-16-2021 12:48 PM

I was just back in my moms home town terre haute, in, for a few days to deal with some estate items, and signs everywhere folks wanting help, i mean everywhere, from hotel to mom and pop eateries, same in a place called sullivan, in, signs all over.

here in Az, you can’t get anyone to come for interview, and horsefeathers on the lack of great income on jobs, most here have been at top of the pay market for a few years, at least in the const. industry, and yeah there is some who try to go cheap, their work shows and they don’t last long.

couple of my kids are in Al. off a military base, same there, no one wants a job i guess.

and i get it, not every one is made for manual type work, but when the plate is sparse, one does what one does till another opportunity comes along.

this lumber increases is going to continue, i dont’ expect it to change much for quite a while, i dont’ know why, all kinds of stories as to who, what and when, frankly doesn’t matter, as none of us have the ability to change it, except to walk away from the industry
best for the day
Rj in az

-- Living the dream

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